Iraq Exit Strategies

No matter how you feel about why or whether we should be in Iraq, the fact remains that we are. Now what are we going to do? Cut and run, orderly downsizing, long term occupation, or expansion of current boundries (Iran or Syria)? Your view is probably colored by your justification of why we went into Iraq in the first place.

Mr. Bush said it was to unseat a tyranical dictator who had WMD that were a threat to the American people. When that was proven false, it was changed to fighting Al Qaeda on their ground. But it has been well documented that Al Qaeda did not exist in Iraq during the reign of Sadam Hussein, his iron fisted regime would not allow it.

So everyone recognizes that Saddam was a meglomaniac, but he did have one advantage that no one else could provide. His governement was a secular rule that put the fear in the hearts of every dissenting group that existed within Iraqs borders and to some extent outside of the border (Iran originally requested the help of the US during a protracted war that killed maybe millions of Iranians). Although Hussein himself was a Sunni (with his stronghold in the north, north of Baghdad), the predominant religion from Baghdad south, and generally throughout the country was Shii'.

What did we accomplish by over throwing Saddam. We put the minority Sunni people in fear of the predominant Shii' led by the despot leader Al Sadr, who had a army of his own bigger than the country of Iraq (after the overthrow of Saddam's army).

If we did not create the civil unrest between one sect against the other, our short-sighted President (and his defense advisors) certainly created the void by which sectarian violence and war could exist. If one knows anything about what happens when a vacuum is created, they would know that when no force is predominant any manor of forces will rush in to fill the void. This is the cause of infiltration by Al Qaeda, and the effect is that we spent the next three years chasing one battle after the next. Put down the Sunni insurgency in the north, then run south and deal with Al Sadr's militia blowing up Sunni mosques in the south, and then battle Al Qaeda everywhere blowing up everyones markets and mosques to foment anger by the other religious sect.

So what is the alternative to the strategy of 'putting out bonfires'? Do we say that there seems to be no resoulution to sectariean violence, in the absence of Saddam, and therfore just cut and run? Do we accept the fact that we created the mess and so we are obligated to clean it up? Can we accomplish that, short term, and then plan for an orderly exit? Or do we develop a strategy that will allow the Iraqi people to develop a secular alternative to the Al Qaeda fomented version of setting one sect against another. Remember, under Saddam, all sects learned to live amongst the other (whether they wanted to or not).

I believe that if peace among the indigent Iraqi people is still their desire, and if at this time they get to play a part in the development and form of peace, that a stronger union can be developed. I am pragmatic, but hopeful. My son is there fighting, and will be back if nothing changes. I want change so he doesn't have to go back.

In answer to my own question of what to do now, I offer that the only way to absolve our responsibilty for creating the mess, is provide the Iraqi people with the means and security to be able to form a secular government of their own making.

The means for creating such an environment is to recruit and train national, provincial, and local police forces to deal with the sectarian disagreements of the diverse residents of each region, and furthermore to gain their trust that a peaceful co-existance is preferable to daily bombings at the markets they need to trade at. Further, a strong well-trained national Iraqi army must me trained to deal with threats from the outside (other countries as well as international terrorists, read Al Qaeda).

Regardless of how you feel about what we should do next, keep in mind that whoever replaces George Bush in the Whitehouse (Democrat or Republican) will very likely plan on keeping a significant force in Iraq, reqardless of whether we are in a war mode, recovery mode, or maintenance mode. There are only one or two Democratic candidates who advocate a total and immediate withdrawl from Iraq (and it is unlikely that they will be the party nominee).

Do I want the war in Iraq to end? Yes. Do I want my son home safely, and not have to return? Yes. Did Bush get us involved for valid reasons? No. Are we closer to obtaining valid objectives to end the war and establish an atmosphere that the Iraqi people can define and obtain a peaceful existance? I think so.

What do you think?

Dennis

Note: Hopefully, in future postings I will be able to provide some references and direct quotes from people, in Iraq, that have provided me background and understanding of what our mission is and needs to be.